Pay rise surprise leads to forecasts of higher interest rateson June 13, 2023 at 8:33 am

UK wages have risen at their fastest rate in 20 years, excluding the pandemic, raising expectations that UK interest rates will have to rise.

Regular pay excluding bonuses increased by 7.2% in the three months to April, although it still lags behind inflation – the rate at which prices rise.

The Bank of England has warned big pay rises are contributing the UK’s still-high rates of inflation.

It has put up interest rates 12 times since 2021 to try to slow price rises.

Higher interest rates may be good for savers, but are driving up repayment costs for millions of mortgage holders.

And fears the Bank of England will raise interest rates higher than previously thought – from their current 4.5% to as high as 5.5% – have been causing turbulence in the mortgage market,.

Lenders have been putting up rates and pulling hundreds of deals, causing uncertainty for borrowers.

“The renewed pick-up in wage growth in April will add fuel to the recent rise in gilt yields [impacting the mortgage market] and expectations for the future path of Bank rate,” said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Economics.

He added that this was “fanning the impression that the UK has a unique problem with ingrained high inflation”.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said in cash terms, basic pay is now growing at its fastest since current records began, apart from the period when the figures “were distorted by the pandemic”.

“However, even so, wage rises continue to lag behind inflation.”

According to the ONS, pay when adjusted for inflation fell by 1.3% in the three months to April.

The rise in the minimum wage had had a “significant” impact on the April pay figures, said Andrew Hunter, co-founder of the job search engine Adzuna.

The minimum wage – known as the National Living Wage – rose to £10.42 an hour in April for those aged 23 and over.

“Nearly two million workers in the UK saw an almost 10% increase in pay this spring,” Mr Hunter told the BBC’s Today programme.

“What we’re seeing is some signs of optimism from British employers during what is often a time of year where discussions around pay and bonuses are had. So we are seeing wage improvements.”

Workers in multiple industries have held strikes since last summer as pay rates fail to keep pace with inflation. But the gap is narrowing as inflation starts to fall.

The Bank of England has warned sharp pay rises are likely to prolong the UK’s still-high rates of inflation.

Mr Hunter said: “Your average worker will be delighted that their pay on average is going up, but that’s not necessarily a good thing for inflation.”

Figures from the ONS also showed that the number of people not working due to long term sickness climbed to another record high.

Around 2.6 million are now not working due to health problems, it said.

The UK economy is currently struggling to grow, as the soaring cost of living and rising interest rates squeeze households.

However, the jobs market remains resilient, with the total number of people in work rising to its highest level ever in the three months to April.