Expert who called the 2008 crisis says the signal to sell stocks is coming soon

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It is a bumper week of U.S. corporate earnings and one that will tell us more about the devastating impact of coronavirus on the economy.

The busiest week of earnings season will see Alphabet GOOG, -2.09%, Amazon AMZN, -1.62%, Apple AAPL, -0.57%, Tesla TSLA, -2.13%, Boeing BA, +1.78% and Exxon Mobil XOM, +3.09% all report results. Despite fears it could be the worst quarterly earnings seasons since 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 0.40% scored its fourth consecutive session of gains on Monday and was set to open higher on Tuesday.

However, former Goldman Sachs hedge-fund manager Raoul Pal said the dollar was the world’s “biggest problem” and that the signal to sell equities was coming soon.

He said the narrative that the Fed printing money would causes a dollar collapse was “very wrong.”

The chief executive of Global Macro Investor, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, said: “You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a vicious doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise, which causes slower growth, which causes the dollar to rise, as all borrowers play musical chairs to get access to the dollar to service debts.

“Dollar swap lines, QE, jawboning, etc. have done nothing to stop this,” he added in a post on Twitter.

He said no printing of money — by the Federal Reserve — would solve what he described as a “structural” problem. “All attempts to create more money to solve the dollar standard issue tend to devalue all fiat versus gold. Gold is rallying on debt deflation probabilities.”

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

And that brings us back to velocity of the money that the Fed is printing… it is plummeting and that is crowding out the weakest borrowers, in this case EM FX. This is the very essence of a DEBT DEFLATION.

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

This year alone has been a blood bath of currencies versus the USD.

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“My guess is that the next debt deflation signal will come when bonds begin to price in negative interest rates. That day is coming soon… and that will be the signal to sell equities and the insolvency phase will begin.”

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Bitcoin will be part of the equation but has yet to make any serious move against this backdrop. Its time will come…

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

My guess is that the next Debt Deflation signal will come when bonds begin to price in negative interest rates. That day is coming soon…

Here are 2 year yields:

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The stat

Investors are giving companies a pass on earnings, according to Bespoke Investment Group. More than 200 companies have reported first-quarter earnings in the past two weeks and stocks missing earnings per share estimates have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their “earnings reaction days.” Historically, stocks missing EPS estimates have fallen 3.56%.

Originally Published on MarketWatch

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