PM facing tough week on Braverman and Rwandaon November 13, 2023 at 2:03 am

Rishi Sunak is under intense pressure over Home Secretary Suella Braverman, after a weekend in which she was accused of emboldening far right activists who carried out violence on the streets of London.

This is not the only major issue facing the prime minister – here are four reasons why this is will be a big week in Westminster.

There are plenty of folk with rather more job security than Suella Braverman today.

Whitehall is gearing up for some ministerial movements. Some think there is the potential for quite a wide-ranging reshuffle and that it could happen on Monday.

The thing is, reshuffles are always deniable — and put-off-able — until they are physically, publicly and provably under way.

And reshuffles always disappoint more people than they please in a political party. It’s not just that some get jobs and others lose jobs. There are those who don’t have a job and don’t get a job – and so end up disappointed. Don’t forget the overlooked, as well as the sacked and demoted. Oh, and the promoted.

And remember, Rishi Sunak tends to move cautiously.

That said, a wider reshuffle has been in the offing for the last few months, so it has been given plenty of thought in government.

As for Ms Braverman, there is a real sense things have come to a head with her remarks about the police being biased last week. And not just the remarks. The fact they weren’t sanctioned by Downing Street.

Meanwhile, plenty of her ministerial colleagues are fed up with her. Among them are those who never liked her. And those who could tolerate what they saw as the odd outburst. But nowhere near as many as there have been recently.

The Supreme Court will say on Wednesday whether the government’s plans to send some of those arriving on small boats to east Africa can happen.

Do not underestimate how big a moment this is for the government.

But it plays into the timing of a reshuffle too because which minister personifies the idea more than any other? Yes, you guessed it, Suella Braverman.

And if you’re Rishi Sunak and you’re tempted to move her, perhaps best to do it before Wednesday, as she would be emboldened and strengthened if the court says yes and she’s still in post.

But the Rwanda decision matters and matters big time, irrespective of who is home secretary.

It is a flagship government idea, bogged down in the courts for yonks, reaching a definitive moment.

Figures in government have sounded pessimistic about winning. It’s 60/40 against, say some. Others suggest 70/30 against. Yet more say 50/50. Let’s see.

Psychologically, it would feel like a game changer if the government does win.

It doesn’t mean migrants would immediately be on planes. It’d likely take months and there could be further fruitful moments for lawyers.

But it’d be a massive fillip for Mr Sunak and a huge dividing line with Labour – who have said they’d scrap the scheme if they came into government and it was already operational.

We get the latest inflation number that day, too. Wednesday is looking busy.

The government is increasingly confident it will meet its promise of halving inflation this year.

There is an increasing expectation the number on Wednesday will indicate they’re going to do this.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the squeeze on people’s finances is over, far from it.

But it would mean arguably the government’s central promise of this calendar year will be something they will be able to say they have achieved. Ministers will want to talk rather less about some of the other promises — such as waiting lists in England — which they’re not keeping.

This looks likely to happen on Wednesday too.

It’s not guaranteed to happen – it is in the hands of the Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle.

The vote is the idea of the Scottish National Party, who favour a ceasefire in Gaza.

The vote won’t change government policy – ministers say a ceasefire would be a mistake right now as it would empower Hamas.

But it will, if it happens, probably put Labour in a real bind. We have already seen one shadow ministerial resignation over the war. There are other frontbenchers who have also called for a ceasefire, which is not Sir Keir Starmer’s policy.

So, what do they do in the vote? Could they abstain, plea they had a prior commitment? Would that really wash? It could well be a moment where there are further shadow ministerial resignations.

Sir Keir shows absolutely no sign of changing his view, unless circumstances in the Middle East shift. It’s a big few days for the Labour leader and the prime minister.