The Supreme Court judgement is clear but not what Nicola Sturgeon wantedon November 23, 2022 at 12:42 pm

Clarity was what Nicola Sturgeon asked for and clarity is what she now has from the UK Supreme Court.

The judges have made clear that the law does not allow Holyrood to legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster’s agreement.

That means there will not be an indyref2 on 19 October 2023, as the Scottish government had planned.

SNP ministers will accept the judgement and respect the law. A wildcat ballot in the Catalan-style is not an option.

A legal referendum can only happen if the first minister somehow persuades the prime minister to abandon his opposition.

There’s little prospect of that happening in the short term, so the renewed campaign for independence just became a longer haul.

It will immediately incorporate this court defeat into its narrative and seek to use it to build support.

At rallies across Scotland, independence supporters will protest that Scottish democracy is being denied.

Some will argue the nature of the Anglo-Scottish union has changed from one based on consent to one based on law.

Others will ask: if a Holyrood majority for indyref2 is not accepted as a mandate by Westminster then what is the democratic route to independence?

The reply from supporters of the union will be that the democracy of the 2014 referendum should be allowed to stand for at least a generation.

They will argue that tackling the cost of living crisis should be taking up all the available bandwidth in politics right now.

UK PM Rishi Sunak may want to demonstrate his commitment to devolution through an early visit to Scotland and perhaps a joint announcement with the Scottish government on freeports.

UK Labour leader Keir Starmer is likely to adopt plans for a UK-wide redistribution of power along the lines proposed by the former prime minister Gordon Brown, who is due to publish a blueprint soon.

The big question is what will Nicola Sturgeon do next?

Plan A – that Westminster would accept a Holyrood majority for indyref2 as a mandate has failed.

Plan B – that the courts might allow a referendum without Westminster consent has failed.

That leaves her stated Plan C – to take the independence argument into the next UK general election and treat it like a referendum.

Ms Sturgeon has previously said she would seek to win more than 50% of the vote in the election and if successful would claim that as a mandate for independence.

She recommitted to that plan in the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling but left some of the details to a special SNP conference to be held in the New Year.

It would be a huge gamble.

In its best ever election result in 2015, the SNP fell just short of 50%.

That is an extremely high bar in an election where any number of other issues could be at play.

Clearing it is unlikely to get easier if Labour continue to be seen as serious challengers to the Conservatives in the battle for Number 10 and an alternative route to political change.

There is also no guarantee that record-breaking electoral success for the SNP (and its allies) would be accepted by whomever forms the next UK government as a basis for independence negotiations.

Even some on Nicola Sturgeon’s side privately hope she will back off this all-or-nothing approach.

Because if this Plan C fails, it would be time for a new independence strategy and presumably new leadership of the SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon refuses to be drawn on what would happen in these circumstances, except to say: “if we can’t win, we don’t deserve to be independent”.