Donald Trump becomes the 47th president later but the global impact of his second term is already being felt.
How Trump has already changed the world
BBCDonald Trump is just hours away from being sworn in as the 47th president but the global impact of his second term is already being felt.
From Jerusalem to Kyiv to London to Ottawa, his election victory and the anticipation of a new Trump agenda has changed the calculations of world leaders – with some far-reaching consequences.
In the lead-up to the handover of power in Washington, our correspondents dissected these changes in the regions where they were.
Middle East – ceasefire deal in Gaza
By international editor Jeremy Bowen
Donald Trump has made an impact on the Middle East even before he sits down in the Oval Office to start his second term as president.
He cut through the delaying tactics that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in alliance with his ultra-nationalist coalition partners, had used to avoid accepting the ceasefire deal that Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden put on the negotiating table last May.
American pressure on Hamas and other Palestinian groups is a given. Under Biden, pressure on Israel was the lever that was never pulled. Trump starts his second term claiming credit, with reasonable justification, for getting the ceasefire deal in Gaza over the line. He can bask in some glory.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, is dealing with a coalition crisis. The entire principle of doing a deal with Hamas is repugnant to the ultra-nationalist politicians who have supported his government.
One of them, the National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says his party, Jewish Power, will only support the government if it resumes the war, cuts off all aid to Gaza and destroys Hamas. If that does not happen, he will resign.
That will be of no importance to Donald Trump. The push for a Gaza ceasefire demonstrated that Trump would put the interests of his presidency before the political requirements of Israel’s prime minister.
UK – a secret ‘mini cabinet’
By Laura Kuenssberg, presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
Trump and his team are different this time round, more prepared, with a more aggressive agenda perhaps, but his delight in keeping the world guessing seems undimmed. It’s this uncertainty accompanying Trump that the British political establishment in Whitehall and Westminster finds so shocking.
How can the UK prepare for what it can’t yet know?
A small group of senior ministers has been trying.
There have been series of secret “mini-cabinet” meetings, with the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and the Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds “trying to plan for what might come”, according to one source.
One insider tells me there hasn’t been too much preparation for multiple specific scenarios because “you’d drive yourself crazy” trying to guess Trump’s next steps. But another source says various papers have been prepared to be presented to the wider Cabinet.
I’m told the focus has been “looking for opportunities” rather than panicking about whether Trump might follow through on some of his more outlandish statements, such as annexing Canada.
Ukraine – pressure for a deal
By Orla Guerin, senior international correspondent
Twenty-four-year-old David joined up to fight in Ukraine’s war against Russia last September as Moscow’s troops neared his hometown. He now spends his time handling explosives – though he would prefer to be at college learning languages.
“No-one knows how long the war will last,” he says, “maybe not even the politicians”.
“I would like it to end soon so that civilians won’t suffer, and people won’t die anymore. But considering how things are now on the front line, it won’t be soon.”
He believes that if the guns are silenced, it will be only a pause, before Moscow comes back for more.
The winds get stronger and a vampire drone crash lands. It’s out of action for now. The unit pack up and leave, as fast as they came. They will be back in action at nightfall, resuming the duels in the sky.
But on the ground the Russians keep inching forward, and the Trump presidency will mean pressure for a deal. And there is one more hard truth here: if it comes it is unlikely to be on Ukraine’s terms.
Canada – threat of tariffs adds to turmoil
By Jessica Murphy, Canada digital editor
The political instability in Ottawa comes as Canada faces a number of challenges – not least the vow by Trump to impose of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.
Until recently, Justin Trudeau seemed determined to hang on as prime minister, citing his desire to face Pierre Poilievre – his ideological opposite – in the polls.
But the shock resignation of Trudeau’s key deputy, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December – when she cited his perceived failure to not take Trump’s threats seriously – proved to be the final straw.
Members of Trudeau’s own party began to make it publicly clear they no longer supported his leadership.
And with that, the last domino fell. Trudeau announced his resignation as PM earlier this month.
China – investors eye trade war
By Suranjana Tewari, business reporter, Singapore
China’s economy rebounded in the last three months of last year, allowing the government to meet its growth target of 5% in 2024, Beijing announced on Friday.
But it is one of the slowest rates of growth in decades as the world’s second largest economy struggles to shake off a protracted property crisis, high local government debt and youth unemployment.
The head of the country’s statistics bureau said China’s economic achievements in 2024 were “hard won,” after the government launched a slew of stimulus measures late last year.
Beijing has rarely missed its growth targets in the past.
Experts had broadly predicted this rate of growth. The World Bank said lower borrowing costs and rising exports would mean China could achieve annual growth of 4.9%.
Investors, however, are bracing themselves: the threat of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs on $500bn (£409bn) worth of Chinese goods looms large.
Yet that is not all that stands in the way of China achieving its growth targets next year.
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