West Lancashire: Tories out of road, say Labour after by-election winon February 10, 2023 at 12:40 pm

Labour’s victory in the West Lancashire by-election shows the Conservatives have “run out of road,” Rachel Reeves has said.

The shadow chancellor said the result, which saw a 10.5% swing from the Tories, had sent a “clear message” to Rishi Sunak.

The party’s candidate Ashley Dalton will replace Rosie Cooper, who stood down as the area’s MP after 17 years.

It follows two recent by-election holds for Labour in north-west England.

The party had been widely expected to retain the West Lancashire seat, which they have held since 1992.

Its winning 8,326 majority is similar to that after the last election in 2019, but its share of the vote increased from 52.1% to 62.3%.

The result is the latest indication of the task facing Mr Sunak ahead of local elections in May, with the Tories trailing Labour in national polls.

Ms Reeves told reporters the by-election win was a “strong result” for her party, with voters there “sending a clear message to Rishi Sunak and his government that frankly they are no longer fit to govern”.

“People want a general election and a choice now about who is in government, because this government have run out of ideas and they’ve run out of road,” she added.

However, Blackpool South MP Scott Benton, who was involved in the Tory campaign, said the swing to Labour was “modest” and “very similar to what you’d expect given the national polling”.

“Governments generally have challenging by-elections. We’ve been in power for 12 years, so you would expect to see this type of result,” he added.

“If [Labour leader] Keir Starmer were on course to win a general election, I think you would have expected a record Labour majority here.”

Ms Dalton had twice unsuccessfully campaigned to become an MP, previously losing in Rochford and Southend East.

The part-time charity worker will now replace Rosie Cooper, who announced she was quitting as an MP last September to take a senior NHS job in Merseyside.

The Liberal Democrats finished fourth, behind Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party).

Conservative candidate Mike Prendergast was formerly the Tory group leader on nearby Sefton Council.

The West Lancashire seat was created in 1983 following a boundaries review. While its first MP was Conservative Ken Hind, Labour has held it since 1992.

In December Labour held the constituencies of Chester and Stretford and Urmston in Greater Manchester after by-elections there.

Labour’s win in West Lancashire was widely expected, but can it tell us anything about a bigger political picture?

The shift in support from the Conservatives to Labour since 2019, if repeated nationally, would just about be enough for Sir Keir Starmer to move into Number 10. But only just.

That swing of 10.5% is about the same as Labour achieved in the last by-election in Stretford & Urmston – another relatively safe seat for them.

But if Labour were looking for a tubthumping result that suggested a landslide win at the next general election, they didn’t get it.

That won’t provide much consolation for the Conservatives though, who can’t hide from a convincing defeat reflecting their poor showing in national opinion polls.

But in a winter by-election where barely one in three people turned out to vote, it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions.