Bank of England says recession expected to be shorter and less severeon February 2, 2023 at 6:12 pm

The UK is set to enter recession this year but it will be shorter and less severe than previously thought, according to the Bank of England.

The slump is now expected to last just over a year rather than almost two as energy bills fall and price rises slow.

As a result, fewer people are likely to lose their jobs, but the number of job vacancies – currently close to record levels – are expected to fall.

The fresh forecast came as the Bank raised interest rates to 4% from 3.5%.

It is the tenth increase in borrowing costs in a row and will add pressure to many households already struggling with the cost of living.

The impact will be felt by borrowers through higher mortgage and loan costs, although it should also mean better returns for savers.

Homeowners with a typical tracker mortgage will now pay about £49 more a month. Those on standard variable rate mortgages face a £31 increase.

The Bank’s predictions come after a separate forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested the UK would be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, performing worse than even Russia.

The bank’s forecast is slightly more pessimistic than the IMF and it said that the UK economy would be weak for some time.

It has been putting up interest rates to tackle inflation, which at 10.5% remains close to its highest level for 40 years – more than five times what it should be.

Higher interest rates are meant to encourage people to save more and spend less, helping to stop prices rising as quickly.

In November, the Bank said it would act “forcefully” to control rising prices, but on Thursday softened its stance saying it only raise rates further if it saw further signs inflation would remain high.

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The Bank previously expected the UK to fall into recession at the end of last year, with the downturn lasting until the middle of next year. It now expects the slump to be shorter – starting in the first three months of this year and lasting until the end of March next year.

A recession is defined as when the economy shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods. Typically companies make less money and cut jobs, leaving the government with less tax revenue to spend on public services.

The Bank is now predicting:

Business owner Jo Williams is worried about the extra costs of an interest rise for her bed sales company and gift shop in Nuneaton.

The mortgage costs for the bed shop warehouse has gone up by £150 per month and her own home mortgage is also creeping higher.

To make up those losses, Jo has cut opening times from 9.30am to 5pm to 10am – 4pm and for the first time in 8 years, has made one member of staff redundant.

“We tried everything to secure that job but it’s a case of having to keep a very, very close eye on cash flow right now,” she explained.

Financial markets widely expect interest rates to peak at 4.5% this year to help drive down inflation. The Bank is expected to raise borrowing costs more gradually compared to recent steep increases. Some economists believe the Bank will hold interest rates at 4.5% for some time before contemplating a cut.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the government would act in “lockstep” with the Bank to try to halve inflation this year.

That meant resisting the urge “to fund additional spending or tax cuts through borrowing, which will only add fuel to the inflation fire”.

But Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The reality is that under the Tories growth is on the floor, families are worse off and we are stuck in the global slow lane.”