Chester by-election: Sunak fails first by-election test, says Rayneron December 2, 2022 at 10:29 am

Labour has held the City of Chester with an increased share of the vote, delivering a blow to Rishi Sunak in his first by-election test as PM.

Samantha Dixon was elected with a 10,974 majority, and a 61% vote share – Labour’s best ever result in the seat.

The 12% swing from the Tories would be enough for Labour to take power if it was repeated at a general election, said polling expert John Curtice.

Ms Dixon said voters “are fed up with the government”.

In her victory speech, she said they had delivered a message to Mr Sunak that the Conservatives “no longer have a mandate to govern”.

“I don’t think they believe that the Conservatives have the answers, I think they think it’s Labour’s turn now,” she added.

Labour had been expected to retain the seat, which it won in 2019 by a majority of 6,164.

In that election, the Conservatives came second, winning 38% of the vote. Labour and the Liberal Democrats secured 50% and 7% respectively.

This time around, Ms Dixon won with a 61% share, easily defeating Conservative Liz Wardlaw on a 41% turnout.

“Labour are in a stronger position than they have been at any point in the last 12 years,” elections expert Sir John told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

The 12% swing from Conservatives to Labour would be enough for Labour to form a new government, Sir John said, but “wouldn’t produce an enormous majority” were it to be replicated in a general election.

The swing to Labour is slightly above that seen during the 1992-97 parliament that ended with a Labour landslide.

“Rishi Sunak is being reminded by the voters of Chester he has quite a lot of work to do,” Sir John said.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and elections analyst, said the election went “generally as expected, no shocks but definite satisfaction for the Labour Party”.

He told Sky News that there is “no question” the Tories have a “real challenge on their hands”.

The contest was triggered by the resignation of previous Labour MP Christian Matheson.

He stood down after Parliament’s watchdog recommended his suspension for “serious sexual misconduct”.

The Conservatives have performed badly in recent by-elections, losing Wakefield to Labour and the historically safe Tory seat of Tiverton and Honiton to the Liberal Democrats.

Those defeats increased political pressure on Boris Johnson, who later resigned as prime minister.

Thursday’s by-election was the first to take place since Mr Johnson quit and his successor Liz Truss caused market turbulence with her mini-Budget.

Analysis

By Kaleigh Watterson, Cheshire political reporter

Even though it wasn’t a completely unexpected result, people from the Labour Party here in Chester are very happy with a near 11,000 majority.

This has been a Labour seat since 2015 and, out speaking to people on the streets, there were more people saying they were going to vote for them.

The Labour campaign was a lot more active too. We saw a lot of shadow ministers coming to visit – big hitters like Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and former leader Ed Miliband.

Sam Dixon – a former leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council – was keen to showcase her local links.

That localness has mattered – some of the candidates told me the first question asked of them was: “Are you from Chester?”

With a Conservative candidate living in a neighbouring council area and minimal ministerial visits, the question can be asked: Did the Conservatives really have their heart in this one?