It’s possible the appointment of new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will buy some time. But will it be enough?
Image source, Getty ImagesSome MPs in the Conservative party feel close to giving up, and after weeks of market turmoil and political chaos the mood is bleak.
“It’s done… we can’t win,” volunteered one minister, a Truss believer, who has been dusting off their CV, accepting they will lose their seat whenever a general election comes.
The debate in the past 72 hours has been how long Liz Truss can survive in Downing Street. A small number of Conservative MPs have now called publicly on the prime minister to go. More could well follow soon.
In conversations with the BBC over the weekend, many others argued Ms Truss would have to leave office before the next election. Some believed she could hang on for few more months. But an increasing number argue she has weeks or even days left – even though there’s no clarity on how that would come about or who would take over.
One former cabinet minister concluded: “People know that this is over – it’s a question of how and when.”
Ms Truss, for her part, will spend much of Monday trying to persuade ministers and MPs it’s not over.
She will address the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs in Parliament – and hold talks with cabinet ministers at a “reception”, where they will be asked for their views on how to balance the books in the medium term. Other MPs will be invited for coffee as the prime minister seeks to win them over.
The new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will hold talks this week with Conservative backbenchers about the tough decisions he says he will have to make in the next fortnight. Everything is on the table after the government’s plan was effectively shredded over the weekend.
The message from Downing Street is that they are in listening mode.
It’s possible the appointment of Mr Hunt will buy the prime minister some time. But will it be enough time?
Some Tory MPs are pleased with his appointment – and believe all the signs are that he is now calling the shots on the economy. “He’s the de facto prime minister,” reckons one former minister.
Influential figures in the centre of the party have spent the weekend arguing that rebels should wait and see what he delivers in his Halloween economic plan. That would give the government at least a fortnight.
There are also powerful MPs who are desperately appealing for a period of calm. A “sizable chunk” of MPs are said to want to let the temperature cool a bit. Some argue divisions could be healed by a reshuffle, bringing in different wings of the party.
But the collapse of Ms Truss’s programme has been dizzying – some warn there could be more unrest to come this week.
“A lot of it will depend on the markets,” says one former minister who served under Boris Johnson. “If they stay around where they are, that will buy her a bit time. If the markets go into freefall, she’s got to go within the week.”
That’s a sentiment reflected by other MPs who spoke to the BBC this weekend.
Another was more definitive: “She is finished… I don’t see any world in which she’s not gone in the not-so-distant future. I don’t see the point of her anymore.”
There are many Conservatives who share that opinion. But that doesn’t mean they agree on what happens next.
“I don’t think this premiership is going anywhere – how it ends; I can’t tell you that,” says a former cabinet minister.
Under the current 1922 Committee rules, Ms Truss is safe from a confidence vote for a year. The rules could be changed, but recent precedent suggests the committee is reluctant to do so – preferring the leader to jump before being pushed. Sources have suggested the same to me this weekend.
Many MPs are also terrified at the prospect of another lengthy leadership debate among the membership. As a result, there are conversations happening about a coronation – where MPs would choose their next leader in the space of a couple of days without consulting members.
The three names discussed widely this weekend are Ben Wallace, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. But each have their own problems.
- Mr Wallace’s allies say he doesn’t want it just now; he believes the focus should be on stability and the prime minister should be given time to deliver it.
- Mr Sunak is still massively divisive and unlikely to win over those who hold him responsible for Boris Johnson’s downfall. Some grandees warn the party would split if he was made leader by MPs.
- Penny Mordaunt is seen by some as too inexperienced to take on the leadership, especially at a time of economic crisis.
Other names being discussed include Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps. But could any of them unite such a divided party?
Whatever happens this week, the Conservative Party is not a happy place. After years of internal debate, it has yet to make a firm decision about what it wants do with power.
That makes Liz Truss’s position incredibly precarious – but it also makes the other options difficult too.